Archive for September, 2009

Credit Market Overview
September 16, 2009
Events since August of 2007 have made the relationship between the credit and equity markets all too painfully obvious.  Additionally, as the various programs that have been put in place begin to heal the fractures and fissures caused by the near implosion of the global financial system, we are seeing the… »

Credit Market Overview
September 15, 2009
Two things we now know didn’t work during the Great Depression, besides millions of willing and able bodied Americans were stimulus spending and the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.  The failure of the first was documented by the man charged with implementing it, Henry Morgenthau Jr., FDR’s Treasury Secretary who… »

Credit Market Overview
September 14, 2009
Dow Theory, as I mention from time to time in this space, has as one of its tenets that new highs in either the Industrial or Transportation index need to be confirmed by a new high in the other index for the move up to be validated.  The race to new… »

Credit Market Overview
September 11, 2009
It’s the first Friday before the first weekend after summer has officially come to an end here in the States but as a quick follow up to a piece I did some weeks ago on the condition of the nation’s hog farmers and the agricultural lobby’s effort to throw more good… »

Credit Market Overview
September 10, 2009
Wind.  It can be as gentle as the tropical breeze that keeps you cool as the “Girl From Ipanema” walks by or, as Dorothy is well aware, strong enough to suck you right out of Kansas!
A tail wind can be very useful when flying from one spot to another and that… »

Credit Market Overview
September 9, 2009
The market seems to be playing another game of Slides and Ladders although the updated version might be renamed Dichotomies and Divergences as it is the market’s interpretation of serially contradictory data that is resulting in the slow climbs and fast falls.
From a few steps back it is also looking like… »

Credit Market Overview
September 8, 2009
I’ve got good news and I’ve got bad news.  Which do you want first?  I agree, better to get the bad news out of the way.  After all we’re just back from a long weekend, our batteries are fully charged and we’re nice and relaxed so it shouldn’t be that tough.
OK,… »

Credit Market Overview
September 4, 2009
On August 17th and again on September 1st the SPX dropped 26 points and 24.50 points respectively.  Leading up to 8/17 CDS spreads had risen from 105bps to 123bps (18bps or 17%) on the investment grade index in what can easily be called an uninterrupted run.  From 8/27 to 9/2 the… »

Credit Market Overview
September 3, 2009
In the markets these days the phrase: “what a difference a day makes” sometimes rings true in the hour between 3pm and 4pm.  To stretch the time frame to a year invites cynicism from even those wired to always look on the brightest of sides.
We were on the eve of Lehman… »

Credit Market Overview
September 2, 2009
Remember those halcyon days when “less bad” was, to quote that champion of a healthy breakfast Tony the Tiger, G-R-E-E-A-T!  Now we have home prices rising two months in a row, durable goods orders rising close to 5% and a national ISM Manufacturing Index that not only moved into positive territory… »