Archive for June, 2009

Credit Market Overview
June 30, 2009
One of the truly fascinating things about the market and by “market” I mean the sum of the equity, fixed income and commodity markets, is that at any given point in time a set of factors can be considered bearish and at another point in time the exact same set of… »

Credit Market Overview
June 29, 2009
“This time it’s different.”  That phrase usually marks the peak of “irrational exuberance” and is what investors tell themselves as they play another round of the game known as the “greater fool”.  In the end it always is the same and the lesson that it was not “different” comes very painfully… »

Credit Market Overview
June 26, 2009
The actions of the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan are considered to be a leading cause of that which has come crashing down all around us lo’ these past two years.  Alan continues to do what he thinks he does best and that is to analyze data to see as far… »

Credit Market Overview
June 25, 2009
The S&P closed above it’s 200DMA on June 10th; a bullish sign we were told.  On June 22nd it closed back below its 200DMA a bearish sign unto itself but given more weight since the move above was then seen as failing.  A “Golden Cross”, we have recently learned, occurs when… »

Credit Market Overview
June 24, 2009
Commercial Mortgage Backed Security (CMBS) delinquency rates are up by a factor of 3 in the last six months hitting 2.7% in May, which if you’re keeping score, is the highest level in a decade.  Additionally there are $155BN of CMBS loans coming due between now and 2012.  Of these Deutsche… »

Credit Market Overview
June 23, 2009
While running some errands over the weekend I passed one of those shops that sell cards and candles and those magnets that everyone’s refrigerator boasts at least one of.  There were also a few of those posters with various sayings on them one of which said something like; “you can’t keep… »

Credit Market Overview
June 22, 2009
CDS spreads paused in their recent moon shot on Friday with the Hi-Yield index taking on just 7/10ths of a point or an increase of about 0.06% and the Investment Grade index falling 9/10th of a point or 0.63%.  Small numbers yes, but in the context of a move from 926.2… »

Credit Market Overview
June 19, 2009
The President, in his speech on Wednesday, outlined his plans for financial regulatory reform.  The raison d’etre of this effort, it would appear, is to prevent what just happened from happening again.  “Happened” might be a poor choice of words here as the world is still reeling from the effects of… »

Credit Market Overview
June 18, 2009
In days of old, when men were bold . . . err . . . better not go there; ok, let’s try this.
Trade has been an integral part of man’s existence since the caveman with the pelts gave some to the cave man with the fire so that they could both… »

Credit Market Overview
June 17, 2009
Last Wednesday I wrote about the overall tendency for stocks to move in unison with correlation running near 80% between a given stock and the S&P index.  I don’t have any exact figures for you this morning as to how much that has changed, if any, from a purely quantitative standpoint… »